In the wake of the recent 2024 presidential election, a fascinating shift has emerged among Evangelical voters, particularly within the Latino community. A new report by researcher Ryan Burge sheds light on how non-white Evangelicals, who traditionally leaned Democratic, have increasingly aligned with the Republican Party, showcasing a notable change in voting patterns.
According to Burge’s analysis, published on his Substack platform, Trump’s support among Evangelicals reached unprecedented levels in the 2024 election. This report is significant, especially considering it comes just months after President Donald Trump’s victory over then-Vice President Kamala Harris. The data, derived from the Cooperative Election Study, spans five recent presidential elections, including the pivotal years of 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Historically, Evangelicals have shown strong support for Republican candidates. However, the 2012 election marked a low point when Mitt Romney secured only 69% of the Evangelical vote. Fast forward to 2024, and Trump garnered an impressive 75% of Evangelical support, surpassing his previous tallies of 70% in 2016 and 73% in 2020. Notably, Trump’s appeal among white Evangelicals soared to 83% this election cycle, indicating a growing loyalty within this demographic.
What’s particularly striking is the shift among non-white Evangelicals. In previous elections, this group predominantly supported Democratic candidates. For instance, Trump only received 35% of the non-white Evangelical vote in 2016 and 40% in 2020. However, the 2024 election saw a dramatic turnaround, with Trump capturing 48% of the non-white Evangelical vote, nearly closing the gap with Harris, who received 49%. This shift represents a significant swing from the 2020 election, where Biden led Trump by a staggering 18 points among non-white Evangelicals.
Burge’s analysis highlights that Trump’s gains among this demographic are not just a fluke. He observed improvements across various attendance levels at church, with Trump’s support rising among those who attend services regularly. For example, 90% of white Evangelicals attending church multiple times a week voted for Trump in 2024, a notable increase from 2016.
This trend aligns with broader exit polling data, which indicates that Latino voters, particularly those of faith, are shifting their allegiances. In the 2024 election, 64% of Latino Protestants backed Trump, and he also secured a majority of votes from Latino Catholics at 53%. This marks a significant increase in support compared to the previous election cycle, where Biden dominated this demographic.
The implications of this shift are profound, especially for future elections. Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, a prominent figure in the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, has pointed to key issues that resonate with Latino voters, such as family values and opposition to late-term abortion laws. These factors have contributed to the growing support for Republican candidates among Latino Evangelicals.
As we analyze these trends, it’s clear that the landscape of faith-based voting is evolving. The increasing alignment of non-white Evangelicals with the Republican Party could reshape political strategies and outreach efforts moving forward. The question remains: how will this newfound support influence the GOP’s approach to engaging with Latino communities in the future?
In conclusion, the 2024 election has revealed a remarkable shift in Evangelical voting patterns, particularly among Latino voters. As researchers and political analysts continue to study these changes, it’s essential to recognize the role of faith in shaping political identities and affiliations. The landscape of American politics is undoubtedly changing, and understanding these dynamics will be crucial for both parties as they prepare for future elections. For more detailed insights, you can explore the full analysis on Graphs About Religion.