Trump Proposes New Census Excluding Illegal Immigrants: Implications for Representation
In a bold move that has stirred the political landscape, former President Donald Trump has announced plans for a new U.S. census that aims to exclude illegal immigrants from population totals. This proposal, shared on his Truth Social account, seeks to ensure that only legal residents are counted, potentially reshaping the distribution of congressional seats and Electoral College votes across states.
For decades, the U.S. census has included illegal immigrants in its counts, leading to debates over fair representation. States with high numbers of non-citizens often gain more influence in the House of Representatives than their legal populations would suggest. Trump’s statement emphasized that “People who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS,” a declaration that has sparked both support and opposition.
The timing of this announcement is particularly significant, coming five years after the last census and just ahead of the 2030 census. The data collected in the upcoming census could have profound implications for political representation, as it will determine how many seats each state receives in Congress and how Electoral College votes are allocated during presidential elections. However, the timeline for implementing this new census remains uncertain, raising questions about whether it could be completed in time for the 2024 elections.
The U.S. Constitution mandates that representatives be apportioned based on the “whole number of persons” in each state, as outlined in the 14th Amendment. While the Constitution does not explicitly prohibit additional censuses, it does set a precedent for the decennial count. The first census took place in 1790, and since then, the U.S. has conducted a census every ten years.
In response to Trump’s announcement, members of Congress have introduced legislation aimed at excluding illegal immigrants from future census counts. The Equal Representation Act, with 62 co-sponsors in the House and 18 in the Senate, would require a citizenship question in all censuses starting with the 2030 count. Another proposal, the Making American Elections Great Again Act, would authorize an immediate census excluding non-citizens.
Despite the support these measures have garnered from Republican lawmakers, their paths to passage face significant hurdles. The current composition of Congress, with Democrats largely opposed to excluding non-citizens, complicates the legislative process. The Senate requires 60 votes for most legislation to pass, and with Republicans holding only 53 seats, bipartisan support will be crucial for any significant changes.
An analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that over 22 million non-citizens reside in the U.S. today, with states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas each hosting more than a million illegal immigrants. Should a new census exclude these individuals, these states could see a reduction in their congressional representation, significantly impacting their political power.
Legal challenges are also anticipated, as efforts to alter census methodology have faced scrutiny in the past. The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 2019 ruling, upheld a challenge against including a citizenship question on procedural grounds. The court’s decision highlighted the complexities surrounding census administration and the authority of the Secretary of Commerce.
As the nation approaches the next census, the debate over representation and the inclusion of illegal immigrants is likely to intensify. With the stakes higher than ever, how this issue unfolds will not only shape the political landscape but also resonate deeply within communities across the country. The call for an accurate and fair census remains a central theme in discussions about democracy and representation in the United States.